Week 23: Behavioral Economics

 

Week 23: Behavioral Economics – Introduction & Psychological Insights in Economic Decision Making

1. What is Behavioral Economics?

Behavioral Economics combines insights from psychology and economics to understand how people actually make decisions — not just how they should make decisions according to traditional economic theory.

  • Traditional economics assumes that individuals are fully rational, always making decisions that maximize their utility.

  • Behavioral economics recognizes that real people are influenced by biases, emotions, and cognitive limitations.

Key Focus:

  • Why people make irrational choices.

  • How context, framing, and psychological factors influence economic behavior.

2. Why It Matters

Understanding behavioral economics helps:

  • Policymakers design better regulations and “nudges” to guide people towards beneficial behaviors.

  • Businesses improve marketing, product design, and customer engagement.

  • Individuals become aware of their own biases and make better decisions.

3. Core Concepts & Psychological Insights

a) Bounded Rationality

  • People have limited cognitive capacity, time, and information, so they often settle for decisions that are “good enough” rather than optimal.

  • Example: Choosing a familiar brand instead of researching all options.

b) Heuristics (Mental Shortcuts)

  • Rules of thumb that simplify decision-making but can lead to biases.

  • Example: Availability heuristic — overestimating the likelihood of events we can recall easily (e.g., fearing plane crashes after seeing news coverage).

c) Loss Aversion

  • People dislike losses more than they like equivalent gains.

  • Example: Losing $100 feels worse than gaining $100 feels good.

  • This explains why people often avoid risks, even when the potential reward is favorable.

d) Overconfidence Bias

  • People tend to overestimate their knowledge and abilities.

  • Example: Traders believing they can consistently beat the market.

e) Framing Effect

  • The way a choice is presented can change decisions.

  • Example: Consumers prefer “90% fat-free” meat over “10% fat” meat, even though they’re identical.

f) Prospect Theory (Kahneman & Tversky)

  • People value gains and losses differently, leading to decision-making that deviates from expected utility theory.

  • Explains behaviors like holding losing investments too long.

4. Applications in Real Life

  • Public Policy: Using nudges like automatic enrollment in retirement savings plans.

  • Marketing: Presenting prices as “only $1 per day” instead of $365 per year.

  • Health: Structuring choices to encourage healthier eating (placing fruit at eye level).

5. Summary Table

ConceptInsightExample
Bounded RationalityPeople can’t process all infoBuying same brand out of habit
HeuristicsMental shortcutsFearing rare events after news
Loss AversionLosses hurt more than gains feel goodAvoiding risky investments
OverconfidenceOverestimating abilityOvertrading in markets
Framing EffectPresentation changes choice“90% fat-free” vs. “10% fat”
Prospect TheoryGains/losses valued differentlyHolding onto losing stocks

Hafta 23: Davranışsal Ekonomi Giriş – Ekonomik Karar Alma Sürecinde Psikolojik Etkiler

1. Davranışsal Ekonomi Nedir?

Davranışsal Ekonomi, psikoloji ve ekonomiyi birleştirerek insanların karar alma süreçlerini gerçekte nasıl yürüttüğünü inceler — geleneksel ekonominin varsaydığı “tam rasyonel” modelden farklıdır.

  • Geleneksel ekonomi, bireylerin her zaman rasyonel olduğunu ve maksimum faydayı hedeflediğini varsayar.

  • Davranışsal ekonomi ise insanların önyargılar, duygular ve zihinsel sınırlamalar nedeniyle rasyonellikten sapabileceğini gösterir.

Temel Amaç:

  • İnsanların neden irrasyonel seçimler yaptığını anlamak.

  • Kararları etkileyen bağlam, sunum şekli (framing) ve psikolojik faktörleri analiz etmek.

2. Neden Önemli?

Davranışsal ekonomiyi anlamak:

  • Politika yapıcıların, insanları daha faydalı seçimlere yönlendirecek düzenlemeler ve “dürtme” (nudge) yöntemleri tasarlamasını sağlar.

  • Şirketlerin pazarlama, ürün tasarımı ve müşteri deneyimini geliştirmesine yardımcı olur.

  • Bireylerin kendi önyargılarının farkına varmasını ve daha bilinçli kararlar almasını sağlar.

3. Temel Kavramlar ve Psikolojik İçgörüler

a) Sınırlı Rasyonellik (Bounded Rationality)

  • İnsanlar sınırlı bilgi, zaman ve zihinsel kapasiteye sahiptir, bu yüzden “yeterince iyi” kararlar verirler.

  • Örnek: Tüm seçenekleri araştırmak yerine alışık olduğu markayı tercih etmek.

b) Heuristikler (Zihinsel Kestirmeler)

  • Karar sürecini basitleştiren ama önyargıya yol açabilen kurallar.

  • Örnek: Erişilebilirlik önyargısı — Medyada gördüğümüz olayların olasılığını abartmak.

c) Kayıp Kaçınma (Loss Aversion)

  • İnsanlar kayıplardan duyduğu acıyı, eşit büyüklükteki kazançlardan aldığı hazdan daha yoğun hisseder.

  • Örnek: 100 TL kaybetmek, 100 TL kazanmaktan daha kötü hissettirir.

d) Aşırı Özgüven (Overconfidence Bias)

  • İnsanlar bilgi ve becerilerini olduğundan fazla görme eğilimindedir.

  • Örnek: Borsada sürekli piyasayı yenebileceğini düşünmek.

e) Çerçeveleme Etkisi (Framing Effect)

  • Seçeneğin sunum şekli kararı değiştirir.

  • Örnek: “%90 yağsız” etiketi, “%10 yağlı” etten daha cazip gelir.

f) Beklenti Teorisi (Prospect Theory)

  • İnsanlar kazanç ve kayıpları farklı değerlendirir; bu nedenle klasik fayda teorisinden saparlar.

  • Örnek: Zarar eden yatırımı satmak yerine tutmaya devam etmek.

4. Gerçek Hayattaki Uygulamalar

  • Kamu Politikası: Emeklilik planlarına otomatik katılım sistemi.

  • Pazarlama: Fiyatın “günde yalnızca 1 TL” şeklinde sunulması.

  • Sağlık: Meyvelerin raflarda göz hizasına yerleştirilmesi.

5. Özet Tablo

KavramİçgörüÖrnek
Sınırlı RasyonellikTüm bilgiyi işleyememeAlışık marka tercihi
HeuristiklerZihinsel kestirme yollarMedyada gördüğünü abartmak
Kayıp KaçınmaKayıp acısı > Kazanç hazzıRiskten kaçınmak
Aşırı ÖzgüvenBeceriyi abartmaFazla işlem yapmak
Çerçeveleme EtkisiSunum şekli karar değiştirir“%90 yağsız” etiketi
Beklenti TeorisiKazanç/kayıp farklı algılanırZarar eden hisseden çıkmamak

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